Eardley Factor Articles: Home: A Strategy Markedly
Improving the Probability of TV Marketing Success
The Eardley
Factor and You
Marketing
Success
Do Your Ads
Match The Eardley Factor Standard of Excellence?
EardleyFactor
Confidently Predicts Bush Victory
Teresa Heinz-Kerry's
Democratic Disconnect
Why John
Kerry Lost
Fox
News 100 Ads Eardley Factor Evaluation
Sublime,
Subliminal, Secrets and Shambles
CNN 100 Ads Eardley
Factor Evaluation
MSNBC 100 Ads
Eardley Factor Evaluation
ABC 100 Ads Eardley
Factor Evaluation
Fox News
37 Ads Eardley Factor Evaluation
Hillary
Rodham Clinton, Our Next President
Eardley
Factor Gives Mrs. Snowball the "Cold Shoulder"
Predicting
Election 2008 Through the Lens of Eardley Factor Analysis
The
Race to the White House
Obama
on the Slide
`Walking
the Plank' or `Jumping Ship?'
McCain
Back from the Brink
Neuromarketing
the Next Big Idea?
Market
Research the Poor Relation
'Head
On' Proves the Point
Dollar
Woes Spell Doom
Smell:
The Sense We Neglect
Bits and
Pieces
Primary
Dyspepsia
Don't
be afraid of the 'Holy Grail'
Mother's
Milk Can Turn Women On!
For Love
or Money
When
Life was Brutish and Short
Is
Bob Prechter Right?
Torture?
What Torture!
Dollar
Weakness Now Critical
Telling it like it is
Telling it like it is
When one believes it can't get any worse-----------! You guessed it. Things have gotten a lot worse. Problem is as Mr. Jolson said, '' You ain't seen nothing yet!'' what are we talking about? Well, just about everything, and everything right now is bad.
Eardleyfactor is rightly proud of its prediction record. If anyone has done better, then let us hear from you. Let's remind you of our history. A year ago we predicted Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. She will be-- despite a few stumbles along the way. She will learn that it's not a good idea to give driver's licenses to illegals. A black mark there to her advisors who should have known better. Today she admitted she was not at her best in that debate. Hmm!
The 'factor' predicted a close fight between Giuliani and McCain for the Republican nominee. There is no reason at this point to alter this position. The election outcome will depend on 'events', as has been pointed out on several occasions. The way matters are playing out right now, particularly with regard to the strength or weakness of the greenback, will determine the future of the country and the world. The prognosis is becoming increasingly grim. It's really all about the dollar and the past policies and events which have brought us to this point.
United States debt used to be picked up by the carry trade. Zero interest Japanese Yen could be borrowed and switched into dollars where money could be made out of the higher United States interest rates. Then Japanese rates started to rise and United States rates started to fall. Investors found more attractive places to make money and the dollar started to feel the heat.
Secondly, the Chinese, over time have accumulated 1.75 trillion dollars. The possibility has existed for some time now that they could release some or all of this wall of cash into the market. The result could be to devaluate the dollar so badly that its credibility could be destroyed beyond redemption. As this article is being written there is a strong rumor that this process has begun. Time will tell whether this true or not. The seriousness of the consequences cannot be overstated.
What the news networks are not telling the public is that because oil is bought in dollars, the weaker the dollar, the higher the price of a barrel. It's not at this point a question of world shortage as such. It's the dollar's sliding value translating into more and more weaker dollars being needed to buy each additional barrel. As the dollar slides all the other currencies gain. So, for the Eurozone, the adjusted price of the Euro means that the French, for example don't feel the crunch at all.
The Iraq war is partly to blame. The external debt is so vast now, that balancing the books in this environment is all but impossible. Gas at more than $3 is hurting the public considerably. They don't really know the real truth about why this is happening.
Add to this an even more serious scenario. That is that the oil producing countries will increasingly buy oil in Euros. The dollar would then become a busted currency, having to compete for business just like other currencies. One way would be to raise interest rates which of course would be political suicide. If all these events happened in a close time frame the result would be catastrophic.
The probabilities are surely known to this administration. As we have stated in earlier articles, "The enemy is at the gate." Something will have to be done or the most powerful nation on earth will find itself a very short lived giant in a historical perspective. When the beast is wounded it lashes out. Eardleyfactor sees the likely recipients of the United States wrath as being Syria and Iran. The pieces are being put in place. A peace deal seems likely in Palestine. This would release Israel to deal with Syria with Lebanon a willing partner. Bush is turning a blind eye to the Pakistani crisis but it is difficult to imagine that no prior knowledge of the coming crisis was in play by the Bush Administration. Clearly Musharref still has a role in the Republican plans.
Oil has just gone through the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark for the moment. Gas at the pump may rise yet again tomorrow. Who knows what's next for oil prices? The stage is set. The actors/politicians know their lines. A very interesting play has begun.
Robert Jack Eardley, M.D.
Robert Francis Eardley, Cert. Ed., B.A.
3366 Commodore Drive
e-mail: robertfrancis@eardley.org
Lexington, Kentucky 40502-3602
(859) 229-7714
For those interested e-mail
inquiry@eardleyfactor.com
or
robertjack@eardley.org