Eardley Factor Articles: Home: A Strategy Markedly
Improving the Probability of TV Marketing Success
The Eardley
Factor and You
Marketing
Success
Do Your Ads
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EardleyFactor
Confidently Predicts Bush Victory
Teresa Heinz-Kerry's
Democratic Disconnect
Why John
Kerry Lost
Fox
News 100 Ads Eardley Factor Evaluation
Sublime,
Subliminal, Secrets and Shambles
CNN 100 Ads Eardley
Factor Evaluation
MSNBC 100 Ads
Eardley Factor Evaluation
ABC 100 Ads Eardley
Factor Evaluation
Fox News
37 Ads Eardley Factor Evaluation
Hillary
Rodham Clinton, Our Next President
Eardley
Factor Gives Mrs. Snowball the "Cold Shoulder"
Predicting
Election 2008 Through the Lens of Eardley Factor Analysis
The
Race to the White House
Obama
on the Slide
`Walking
the Plank' or `Jumping Ship?'
McCain
Back from the Brink
Neuromarketing
the Next Big Idea?
Market
Research the Poor Relation
'Head
On' Proves the Point
Dollar
Woes Spell Doom
Smell:
The Sense We Neglect
Bits and
Pieces
Primary
Dyspepsia
Don't
be afraid of the 'Holy Grail'
Mother's
Milk Can Turn Women On!
For Love
or Money
When
Life was Brutish and Short
Is Bob Prechter Right?
Torture?
What Torture!
Dollar
Weakness Now Critical
Telling
it like it is
Is Bob Prechter Right?
Bob Prechter is best known for his Elliot Wave interpretation of economic
trends. He is something of a guru when it comes to forecasting the ups
and downs of the World Stock Exchanges. He has written several best sellers
including 'How to Survive the Crash' which, he suggests, is now imminent.
He may be right. In the late 1990s he was interviewed on the subject of
the likelihood of the next great conflict occurring soon.
Here are some of his conclusions which have something of an eerie quality
to them now a decade later.
One of his most interesting but rather obvious statements is that wars happen in Bear Markets. He points out that the so called Cold War was a time when great nations merely glowered at each other but didn't fight. It was, we all know, a period of unprecedented growth and mainly took place during prolonged Bull Markets. True there were some 'blips' but generally nothing too much to worry about. It was, he argues a time of inclusivity. Not too long afterwards we experienced the crash of 2001.His timing was excellent.
However, when one examines his logic, there is nothing very clever about his prediction. When people are doing well and there is enough material wealth to go around to satisfy all the important players, nobody wants to fight. If such a thought entered their head it was quickly forgotten. Why fight when one might lose and moreover, there is nothing that important to fight about.
No, it's when things are bad and stomachs are beginning to become empty that wars are contemplated. This is when we have prolonged Bear Markets and people are worried about their life prospects. Prechter is correct but its hardly a startling revelation.
Prechter goes on to illustrate his thesis by connecting wars in the fairly distant past with existence of Bear Markets, including the Civil War,1812,and World War II. Many indicators then are replicated now. he goes on to say that the depth of the Recession mirrors the severity of the War. If that is so, then we had all better take notice. This argument is more convincing. Wars take place in times of hardship.
It's all a bit like conditions now. When social, political, and religious structures start to break down certain' vacuums' are created. Times are dangerous. The Roman Empire's demise let in 'The Dark Ages'. The Protestant Reformation ushered in 'The Thirty Years War' The French Revolution, though stifled by Waterloo, never really went away and 1848 saw Revolution all over Europe and the gradual removal of crowned heads. It can be argued that it continues in other forms to this day.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and its satellites has thrown up a very serious situation. Seemingly humbled, mother Russia is now flexing her oily muscle once more. India and China, sleeping giants of yesteryear are now on the march competing for finite resources. Other smaller players are joining in the game, Indonesia, South Korea and the hitherto quiet nations of South America. All seek a brighter future for their sons. The struggle will be titanic, complex and multi faceted.
Most worrying of all is the rise of Islam. It is not unusual for men to die for their country, but it is most disturbing to discover people who actually want to die for it. Iraq, Iran, the whole of the Middle East is in turmoil with no real hope or expectation of a speedy peace.
The only remaining superpower, the United States has numerous enemies at the gate. Besieged on all sides it is presented with a stark choice. Does it sit and wait for the enemy to break down its doors, or does it decide that to survive in any kind of dignity it needs to strike first. History teaches us that the latter course is a near certainty. No great power goes down without a fight. Eardleyfactor believes that as we write, plans are being laid for a last stand. Our best guess is that before too long Iran and Syria will be involved in some military incident. The present administration has only a short window of opportunity before the Election of 2008. The US Dollar is under fire like never before and a great Bear Market is around the corner. The next little while will prove whether Mr. Prechter will once again be right on the money.
Robert Jack Eardley, M.D.
Robert Francis Eardley, Cert. Ed., B.A.
3366 Commodore Drive
e-mail: robertfrancis@eardley.org
Lexington, Kentucky 40502-3602
(859) 229-7714
For those interested e-mail
inquiry@eardleyfactor.com
or
robertjack@eardley.org