Eardley Factor Articles: Home: A Strategy Markedly
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Hillary
Rodham Clinton, Our Next President
Eardley
Factor Gives Mrs. Snowball the "Cold Shoulder"
Predicting Election 2008 Through the Lens
of Eardley Factor Analysis
The
Race to the White House
Obama
on the Slide
`Walking
the Plank' or `Jumping Ship?'
McCain
Back from the Brink
Neuromarketing
the Next Big Idea?
Market
Research the Poor Relation
'Head
On' Proves the Point
Dollar
Woes Spell Doom
Smell:
The Sense We Neglect
Bits and
Pieces
Primary
Dyspepsia
Don't
be afraid of the 'Holy Grail'
Mother's
Milk Can Turn Women On!
For Love
or Money
When
Life was Brutish and Short
Is
Bob Prechter Right?
Torture?
What Torture!
Dollar
Weakness Now Critical
Telling
it like it is
Predicting Election 2008 Through the Lens of Eardley Factor Analysis
From time to time Eardley Factor applies its unique interpretative tools to investigate and unravel tangled issues 'outside the box' of Media Advertising. We employ our techniques on such issues in order to demonstrate their universal application. Many will recall our successful analysis of Election 2004 which gave a clear victory indicator to the present incumbent. We would encourage seasoned Eardley Factor devotees to remain sufficiently intrigued to examine our two part predictive analysis for Election 2008. Our named candidates will appear in part two. This introductory piece takes a sweeping look at how we have arrived where we are.
More than two years out from the event, many would suggest making our predictions now is fraught with risk. We accept this truth to be self evident. However, so convinced are we of the 'factor's' ability to 'see' in advance how a majority population will behave at the ballot box, given a particular set of political variables that we are, and expect to remain, confident of success. Of course there could well occur cataclysmic events that no one can foresee. 'Acts of God' may occur which could distort the political landscape to a very significant degree. Any one of these could result in the creation of a dynamic sufficiently powerful to render any and all predictions void. So, like any prudent insurance company which inserts its exclusions (Fire, Flood, Riot and, Civil Commotion carry a familiar ring!) we too carry our exclusion policy, but, we do not expect to invoke it.
Let us begin by looking 'broadbrush' at the US economy and its present position as a world 'player'. The end of World War Two and the Bretton Woods Agreement left the US Dollar as the major World Reserve Currency. Over the years reality and perception became blurred and much of the US national consciousness failed to observe that the world had changed. Balanced budgets and the managing of a prudent economy became redundant policies for a variety of reasons. Political expediency was the prime cause, and for some years now the economy has been underpinned by the ready take-up of government bonds. The Japanese in particular have supported the US dollar and the ever burgeoning deficit with China will have to be some future President's problem years down the line. The US deficit now stands at around 9 Trillion Dollars. No economy can sustain debt on that scale without consequences.
Perhaps the only way out of the 'tangled web' would be to exercise meaningful control over the world's major commodities. Here we are not speaking only of oil. The huge price rises in metals like copper and zinc this year are cases in point. However, this control is proving elusive to achieve. In addition, at some point the inevitable inflationary pressures will feed through to the world economy, the magnitude of which is impossible to quantify. . The Coalition of the Willing may have the finest armaments in the world, but it takes boots on the ground to ' tough it out' in the alleys of Baghdad. So, in the short to medium term the Iraq War and general unrest in the wider Middle East is set to continue. The battle for 'hearts and minds' is lost and this has to be faced squarely. A kind of victory would have to be won militarily and this looks unlikely. The Election in 2008 will be won by someone who is astute enough to take all of this on board and then provide perceived light at the end of the tunnel.
Before we attach ourselves to personalities, it is appropriate that we make a number of observations not fully apparent to the average American and which are certain to profoundly impact the 2008 Election. Since the 1950s John Doe has had little interest in the wider world. What went on 'out there' was their affair. True the USSR was long seen as a threat and Ronald Reagan famously termed it 'The Evil Empire'. However, once that threat had crumbled, America stood alone momentarily in splendid isolation as the sole remaining Superpower. What Americans had failed to fully appreciate was that rapid change was taking place in Europe and Asia. The European Union was expanding to incorporate the old Eastern Block and it now outpopulated and rivaled the USA in many areas. Their once derided currency, the Euro, was now becoming the world's strongest. The rapid rise of China and India over the past decade has been so astonishing that they now respectively occupy the status of 'Workshop' and 'Back Office' of the world. The out-sourcing to these economies by the 'old economies' is now perceived as being a major concern. Listen in on any campus, pub or coffee shop conversation to hear strident confirmation. The chess pieces of the world are taking on a new and somewhat disturbing dynamic. The West is becoming a service based economy. Where this will ultimately lead is unclear but the transition will be painful and not without danger.
By now many will have caught the drift of our analysis. The future of America will very significantly depend on the status of its currency, which in turn depends on the extent to which it can control events. All other issues flow outward from this. The Chinese Yuan and the Russian Ruble are now being allowed to find their value on the open market without sole regard to their dollar value. Iran is threatening to encourage its oil to be traded in Euros rather than Dollars and to open its own oil Bourse. Hugo Chavez in Venezuela is also considering a similar strategy. If successful, these movements could quite possibly disturb the economic order and lead to a relative collapse in the value of the dollar. The situation is serious and could take the world as we know it into uncharted territory.
We have sketched out the background to the formidable dilemmas facing US politicians over the next two years. Current opinion polls are not helpful to George W. Bush or his party and no improvement seems likely, given that our prognosis indicates little or no improvement in their prospects in the short to medium term. The most likely strategy for the new republican candidates is to establish 'clear blue water' between themselves and the policies of the present administration. The only other alternative is for this administration to convince the electorate that the Bush policy will prove successful in the long term. We now examine the likelihood of this coming to pass.
As we write the situation in Lebanon has erupted, but has ended in a
cease fire chartered by the United Nations. This has the potential to
become one of the cataclysmic events referred to earlier. It would appear
that the Bush/Blair alliance may be making a final throw of the dice.
For the moment Iraq has been sidelined and the world's attention is looking
elsewhere. Cynics claim they smell some kind of a rat. First there is
an attempt by 'someone' to destabilise India by the terrible bombing in
Bombay. Fortunately, this has yet to spark off major problems in the religious
tinder box which is India. However, the timing is interesting. Next, the
kidnapping of he Israeli soldiers has ignited the Hezbollah- Israeli conflagration
which may have reached its tipping point with the deaths of 39 children
in Qana. What has been most significant is the response of the Bush/Rice/Blair
trio in calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. There are those
who suspect a much broader agenda of 'survival' for Israel, the Republican
Party and Blair's New Labor Party. Blair is deeply unpopular at home and
he has only a short window of opportunity to make his reputation for History.
The big picture that Eardley Factor perceives rising from the ashes of
the current Mid-East situation is the redrawing of the map of the region
from that of kingdoms, dictatorships and rule by Mullah, to stable democracies.
One party rule, especially by a religious hegemony is impossible to influence;
dictated by the Koran or Bible, are extremely powerful and control their
followers by interpretation of the ruling elite. In order for oil to flow
to the West without interruption there must be cooperation by friendly
monarchs or democracies which can be better influenced by the usual inducements
of helping them retain power. The present situation is so dangerous that
it cannot be allowed to continue without some modification. Both Syria
and Iran pose a very serious threat to the stability of the region. The
Israeli army is no longer perceived to be invincible given its recent
travails in Lebanon. This apparent weakness may well encourage 'others'
to become involved. We may indeed be witnessing a reshuffling of the tectonic
plates of world affairs. Should Iran be allowed to build an A Bomb, Israel
no longer would hold sway over the Mid-East. America would have lost its
proxy surrogate.
This leads us to the dilemma. Will the West tolerate the existence of
an Iran able to counter Israeli military might, especially when Iran's
leader has promised to wipe the State of Israel off the map? Unless Bush
strikes quite soon to prevent this happening and to reassert American
hegemony in the world he has a problem.
The pretext for such a strike could be a new 9/11 type event which may be directed at hesitant allies such as France or Germany. Thus the world is seen to be 'onside'. Should such an alliance come about, then the balance of probabilities swings firmly back into the Bush/Blair camp. The England terrorist Heathrow International Airport scare has gotten everyone's attention.
However, should the protagonists decide instead to accommodate Syria/Iran then a different outcome will occur. Israel will be demoted to being a medium sized player for the first time in fifty years. The chances of this occurring are low due to the Zionist influence in the US political and economic landscape.
Another possibility could be an attempt to emasculate Syria and Iran. This could be done by elevating the Sunni/Shia differences between the two and thus playing one off against the other. A military strike directly would need a pretext. The 'Gulf of Tonkin and 'Pearl Harbor' are but two examples some might say. We could not possibly comment. Eardley Factor believes that the current risk of escalation is too high and that wiser heads will prevail These scenarios are possible but have low probabilities according to our predictions. Iraq, and now Lebanon are not going Bush's way and the world is somewhat aware of the existence of these riskier options and will refuse to' play.' World opinion after Qana is against the Israeli position that any 'strange events' to draw in other countries would carry a risk of tranparency.
. The Bush policies have proved a risk and could end 'in tears.' Eardley Factor sees light at the end of this particular tunnel. Our projected weighted analyses of all these factors points up the probability of this administration being able to win an election in 2008.
Much better next time around. In our next article the Eardley Factor
will examine the candidates and make comments based on Eardley Factor
for November 2008.
Robert Jack Eardley, M.D.
Robert Francis Eardley, Cert. Ed., B.A.
3366 Commodore Drive
e-mail: robertfrancis@eardley.org
Lexington, Kentucky 40502-3602
(859) 229-7714
For those interested e-mail
inquiry@eardleyfactor.com
or
robertjack@eardley.org