Eardley Factor Articles: Home: A Strategy Markedly Improving the Probability
of TV Marketing Success
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A Strategy Markedly Improving
the Probability of Television Marketing Success.
by "EARDLEY ASSOCIATES."
The following is for information only and describes how it is now possible to translate and apply scientifically based knowledge acquired in areas other than Marketing and Advertising to significantly enhance the probabilities of success, not only for Television Advertising Campaigns, but also for Radio and Magazine Copy.
The "Eardley Factor" is an analytical, remedial and predictive 'enabling tool' capable of prescribing the probability of success in the form of a numerical value. The assiduous application of our procedure is designed to identify and recommend the removal and replacement of negative elements, the presence of which, though often miniscule, will invariably consign these otherwise admirable creations to early retirement.
The authors have invested much of their professional lives (an aggregate in excess of 70 years!) in the study and observation of 'human condition.' The assertions we make here have been the subject of testing 'in the field' on many thousands of occasions over very many years in a wide variety of human interactional situations. Refreshingly, we can state that our work has until now been focused solely in a noncommercial environment. It is our confident contention now, that the principles which have proved so valuable and accurate in areas with which we are familiar, have universal application capability.
It was Bob Goldstein, Marketing 'Hall of Famer,' and then Vice President for Proctor and Gamble, speaking in the mid 1980's, who first alerted us to the magnitude of an issue facing the industry. He was speaking to Eric Clark, who was at that time engrossed in the preparation of his seminal work on the world of advertising - 'The Want Makers.' During the course of the conversation, Goldstein revealed that 90% of newly-launched products would ultimately fail. We perceive this statistic to be both sensitive and meaningful. In an industry claiming to invest well in excess of $200 billion annually, it causes us some surprise that cash evaporation on this scale continues apace.
Bob had gone on to add, "If we were so smart, there would be no failure."
So there we have it - it is all a question of 'smartness'-or so it would seem in this instance-the lack of it. In an industry replete with some of the finest intellects in the land, it would appear that currently no mechanism is in place which has the capacity to reliably predict the probability of success.
We note (from browsing numerous Advertising Agency Sites on the internet) that empirically convincing evidence of a methodology capable of offering a quantifiable measure for predetermining outcome in this 'field' is noticeable absent. The challenge for us was to compile and construct one which would comprehensively and successfully address this longstanding issue. The Eardley Factor fulfills this requirement.
We now make reference to the classification of sensory input. Our experience informs us that all classificational assignations will eventually conform, through a 'reductionist process,' to one of two specific responses. The mind performs a zero-sum operation and classifies events as being helpful or harmful-'Positive' or 'Negative.'
Here it is appropriate to explain more fully how we interpret these terms.
The most important and meaningful 'truth' we have been able to verify from our long experience and to our complete satisfaction, is that all human activity, mental and physical, ultimately concerns itself with 'survival' and/or 'procreation' (for the one cannot exist without the other,' and that all sensory input is processed by the mind in order to determine into which category a particular stimulus will be placed.
The question which the mind needs to find an instant answer to is really quite simple. It is this:-
"Is my acceptance of these units of thought more or less
likely to aid my chances of
survival and/or procreation?"
If the answer is affirmative - then it has been processed as 'positive' and will be acted upon. If the mind answers no, it is 'negative,' and is rejected.
One observation of a very large sample of television commercial advertising informs us that although the industry has successfully identified the issues which motivate buying behavior, all too often, as stated earlier, the elements within and which make up the content and process or the persuasive conduit (the commercial) are in conflict. As such, they are capable of inflicting significant commercial harm to the manner in which the product will be perceived. The assiduous application of the principles we were able to 'prove' from our experience and research, successfully enables these conflicts to be resolved ---- and results in the capability to re-invent and re-present the package in a manner which allows it to operate in a much more powerful and positively persuasive format. Each commercial was analyzed and scrutinized for content and style in the most minute detail. We are able to make an accurate determination of the impact each and every phrase, nuance, facial expression, color, image, rhythm, musical input, body movement, body language, pace and interactional type will be received by an engaged and culturally homogenous group. These packages of sensory input impact in combination to produce what best can be characterized as the formation of a mystical co-mingling of 'art' and 'science.' When the mind makes a determination that the message is helpful, it will respond positively to that suggestion. On the other hand, if even one of these elements is 'out of synch' ---- the whole process is flawed and the mind will either 'switch off' or unwittingly harbor hostile feelings towards the product.
When we closely dissected our sample, very few agency teams indeed appeared to have mastery over the process of combining all of the elemental criteria successfully and positively. This comes as no surprise to us, as the necessary remedial knowledge and expertise has not been available. It would appear that there currently exists an over emphasis on the creative input and an apparent paucity of meaningful knowledge concerning the vital scientific components, without which the process is reduced to something of a lottery. We have concluded that the industry is blamelessly unaware of the enormous potential which these new applications would present.
There do exist, we are happy to relate, some excellent positive commercial pieces which in our judgment are highly likely to generate considerable success for the products whose image they are designed to enhance. Indeed, the very best productions come close to replicating many (thought not all by any means) of the principles we advocate. What we do find mysterious is a lack of consistent application of the 'positive model.' One possible explanation we present for consideration is that the perceived qualities of the product are allowed to determine process, rather than process being held to be a constant!
Our analysis of the sample made possible the separation and placement of all commercials into one of three distinct categories. We found, at times, a small degree of overlap, but generally they were categorized as being either 'positive,' 'neutral' or 'negative.' Approximately 25% we called positive, 50% were neutral, while the remaining 25% we termed negative. So, taking our sample as a whole, ¾ of them (75%) were deemed to be unhelpful and/or destructive. Considering the 'big picture' we were able to conclude that the current position reflected fairly closely Goldstein's claims of a 90% failure rate.
We were able to discern a certain commonality associated with a negative typology in the commercials we had analyzed. Many of these were related to an incorrect importation of cultural allusions. The members of a distinct cultural grouping (American in this case) perceive the world through their own unique cultural lens. All members of it have stored basic common beliefs, 'truths' and values, many of which are garnered from lifelong exposure to media and societal influences. Survival strategies are flagged up, learned and interpreted against this cultural backdrop ---- without the subject being aware that this process is taking place. Possessing the knowledge and expertise to recognize, interpret and correctly categorize the input variables contained implicitly and explicitly in a 'persuasive package' lies at the very heart of our methodology. The negative elements are assigned a progressive 'negative weighting' which is dependent on the degree of harm a particular unit of sensory input is known to be capable of producing. Offending units, whether they be copy, music, inappropriate cultural images ---- indeed any millisecond of material deemed likely to produce in the overwhelming majority of the population, a state of negative arousal, must be removed, reinvented and substitution made by new and acceptable elements.
In a significant number of cases very small changes have the capacity to transform the negative offering and to position it in clear 'positive' territory. In others, remedial activity of a much more radical nature would have been required. The 'best case scenario' of course would be to employ our system in a proactive situation in order to eradicate negative ideas and material in a pre-production environment.
The crucial importance of culture is best illuminated by use of an actual example.
A short time ago, a very expensive automobile was the focus of a commercial in which the car was depicted underwater being admiringly perused by a scantily-dressed female swimming around it.
We adjudged this approach to represent negativity. The reasoning behind our appraisal is that we believe there exists in this country a considerable volume of negative cultural associations connected with cars depicted 'under water'. From early childhood, we have all observed wrecked automobiles being winched from the deep, accompanied by tragic stories of loss of life. Unwittingly, the mind has already processed this information negatively. We recognize that such an assertion seems somewhat unlikely. However, we have come to believe the impact on the mind of stored culturally significant behavioral determinants to be central, and we hold this belief with as much passion and conviction as the world asserts that 2+2 =4.
The second category of negative issue concerns itself with the method of presentation, and is one whose use we interpret as being particularly questionable. The flawed method to which we allude is the one which visits the subject with stimuli designed to promote a state of high negative arousal. Images are promoted which instill negative emotions of, for example, Fear, Envy, Greed or Anger. The subject feels uncomfortable experiencing these emotions and seeks 'salvation'. At this point the subject is presented with a solution. The anxiety can be relieved and a 'State of Grace' achieved by purchase of the product. This strategy is, as they say, 'as old as the hills' but in the context of a 30 second commercial, it remains virtually ineffective. This is the strategy of the 'dubious evangelical', 'the medicine man', et al, Yet, we still observe huge numbers of variations of this theme presented on our screens every day! We all recognize ---- "But you must call now" ---- "This offer can't last --- "You can retire at 40 if ---" etc., etc. ------.
Allow us to explain why we believe this methodology to be deeply flawed. In the context of a Sunday Morning half-hour presentation, it is sometimes possible to take the emotions on a roller-coaster ride and bring a satisfactory resolution to a combination of positive/negative signals. This is possible due to there being sufficient time for the mind to unravel its predicament and for the emotions to travel seamlessly from the one extreme to the other. However, in the space of a 30 second advertisement, the negative overhang is so strong that when the product is presented as a resolution to the uncomfortable feelings of arousal, the negative emotion persists, and the mind is confused Consequently the subject encounters great difficulty in accepting the product as the solution. The usual coping mechanism (survival again!) is to switch off. A calculation of the negative impact on budgetary issues made on this basis across the entire Advertising/ Marketing industry would be most interesting.
It cannot be overemphasized that the mood be perceived as upbeat and that negative arousal triggers be avoided at all costs. The use of novelty for its own sake, and the plethora of visual and auditory clutter (which serves only to confuse) is another important issue to consider.
It may cause surprise in many quarters when it is asserted that the inappropriate use of 'humor' has the capacity to inflict great harm on the beneficial effect the commercial is seeking to bring about. Humor, of course, is often seen as a means of producing instant states of high arousal ---- and so it is --- but often with undesirable and unforeseen results.
It would appear from the observations we have made that few productions pay sufficient attention to the commercial company they keep. As we all are aware, commercials on television are presented in 'pods'. The effect of being situated adjacent to a negative 'ad' can be extremely damaging. Your 'ad' may be the one to suffer from the unwanted swell and overflow from its negative neighbor. It is extremely important to remain acutely aware of the problems which will be caused by the presence of 'bad neighbors'. Conversely, a series of 'positives' spread sweetness and light amongst the entire pod.
Nor should it be forgotten that inserting a product into
an appropriate program schedule is also of significant importance. Inappropriate
emotional overhang will most certainly impact from the content and presentation
style of the program itself. Of course, in the 'real world' these latter
two recommendations are difficult to control, but not impossible.
However, we do wish to underline the importance of good positioning. In an ideal
world a commercial should be viewed in 'splendid isolation' and even then when
the subject is calm and relaxed. It is in this sphere that program content can
play such a pivotal role. The current viewing environment, accompanied by the
extreme stress of modern life present yet one more challenge to those 'creative
scientists' who will aspire to make full use of our findings.
We do at this point feel it appropriate to highlight the importance of the 'creative team members' passionately being able to 'sing from the same hymn sheet'. It is our impression, and one that is corroborated by anecdotal reports from within the industry, that agreement on a common approach is difficult to attain. Traditionally, so it would appear, textual authorship triumphs over that of the visual and/or the audio. Internal dissonance within the team runs counter to the production of commercial excellence, it is so crucial that all members of a team passionately believe, hold dear, and practice the common approach in its microscopic totality.
'The Literary Romantic Movement' of the Late 18th and Early 19th Centuries was often characterized by the creation of poetic devices, which gave language the power to heighten emotional states to levels not previously experienced. The likes of Byron, Shelley, Wordsworth and Keats shared the belief that their work would enable the Power of the Imagination to illuminate the layers of Truth previously obscured by and within the impenetrable recesses of the human mind. Keats' famous declaration that ---- 'Beauty is Truth. Truth 'Beauty' being 'all we know and all we need to know' ---- falls a little short of the mark. What we do need to know is exactly how the mind 'perceives Truth' --- and why it acts on some perceptions and not others.
We believe that our interpretation of how sensory input is received, processed and acted upon is not only accurate but also of immense potential value to the Wider World of Enterprise and Commerce.
We would invite you to visit our web site - Eardley.org. It constitutes, arguably, the most visited Privately Owned Genealogical site in the world. Now nearing 90,000 hits, it was achieved by utilizing those principles we have discussed here. In addition to having received hundreds of letters and made and received thousands of telephone calls, perhaps our most memorable success was in bringing in July 2--- a huge gathering of almost 2/3 of the families who bear our name. They traveled literally from the four corners of the earth to assemble at Saint James Church in Audley, Staffordshire, England. From a global population of around 3,000 we were able to attract almost 2,000 - or 60% of the Worldwide Eardley Family. It was an incredible occasion and received attention from all sectors of the British Media ---- including a letter of encouragement from Buckingham Palace.
There were no free gifts ---- and indeed, no guarantees of any kind, just the promise of a warm welcome and the opportunity to attend the Church where their ancestors had been christened, married, and their funeral rites read. This, we contend, represents the primacy and the power of the issues of Survival and Procreation in action in the real world. The coming together of 'Family' in this way is highly symbolic and applies a kind of 'meaning' to Life itself.
In conclusion, we would encourage industry professionals to give these comments a considered evaluation. They are designed to help provide a significant and universally applicable method of approaching those issues which have hitherto provided high levels of confusion within the Advertising and Marketing Industries.
Robert Jack Eardley, M.D.
Robert Francis Eardley, Cert. Ed., B.A.
3366 Commodore Drive
e-mail: robertfrancis@eardley.org
Lexington, Kentucky 40502-3602
(859) 229-7714
For those interested e-mail
inquiry@eardleyfactor.com
or
robertjack@eardley.org